Judy Dempsey and Marie Yovanovitch assess Western support for Ukraine’s war effort, the country’s democratic transition, and the prospects for peace.
As Ukraine continues its counter-offensive and advances democratic reforms in pursuit of EU and NATO membership, Western support for the country has never been more crucial.
Judy Dempsey, senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, sits down with Marie Yovanovitch, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, to discuss how Europe and the United States can bring Ukraine closer to victory and when conditions for peace negotiations might be ripe.
[00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:57] Western Support for Ukraine, [00:11:15] Ukraine’s Democratic Transition, [00:14:58] Prospects for Peace.
Judy Dempsey, August 29, 2023, “The War in Ukraine is About Europe’s Future,” Carnegie Europe.
Judy Dempsey, July 20, 2023, “Ukraine Has Not Transformed EU Foreign Policy,” Carnegie Europe.
Judy Dempsey, July 13, 2023, “NATO Gives Ukraine No Finishing Line,” Carnegie Europe.
Judy Dempsey, July 6, 2023, “Judy Asks: Is NATO Membership Realistic?”, Carnegie Europe.
Judy Dempsey, April 25, 2023, “Ukraine’s Resilience is About Winning the War,” Carnegie Europe.
Marie Yovanovitch, June 1, 2022, “36 Experts Agree: Stay the Course in Ukraine,” The Hill.
Marie Yovanovitch, March 25, 2022, “Marie Yovanovitch on Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine,” The Washington Post.
Marie Yovanovitch, March 15, 2022, “Lessons from the Edge: A Memoir,” Mariner Books.
Judy Dempsey
Air-raid sirens. Explosions. Gunfire. While many in Europe enjoyed a peaceful summer break, Ukrainians faced the cruel realities of the war brought upon them by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Marked by continued missile strikes resulting in destroyed cities and lost lives, Russia's aggression shows no signs of abating. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s counteroffensive has been making modest gains. Western allies have been responding to Ukraine's appeals for more aid, but questions around the sustainability of this support arise and more and more voices are calling for peace talks.
So, it’s high time to reflect: Are Europe and the United States doing enough for a Ukrainian victory? Could the upcoming U.S. election and war fatigue among Western publics impact the course of the conflict? And what peace, if any, is on the cards for Ukraine?
Judy Dempsey
Hello and welcome to a new season of Europe Inside Out, Carnegie Europe’s monthly podcast about the continent’s greatest foreign policy challenges.
My name is Judy Dempsey and I am a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe and the editor-in-chief of the Strategic Europe blog.
Judy Dempsey
This episode of Europe Inside Out is about Ukraine and the prospects for war and peace in the country.
I am joined by Marie Yovanovitch, a senior fellow at the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former US ambassador to Ukraine from 2016 to 2019. Marie is also the author of the New York Times bestselling book, “Lessons from the Edge: A Memoir,” which is now available in paperback.
Marie, welcome.
Marie Yovanovitch
It’s great to be with you, Judy.
Judy Dempsey
So Marie, since you’re in the hot seat as the former U.S. ambassador, I suppose you really have to get to the nitty gritty question: have the US and Europe really been doing enough for a victory of Ukraine?
Marie Yovanovitch
Yeah, it’s certainly a complicated picture because I think that is the critical point. We shouldn’t just be giving Ukraine enough to kind of hang on. We need to be helping Ukraine enough to win and be victorious for many different reasons. First and foremost for Ukraine, but also in terms of ensuring that Russia does not do anything like this again and sending a signal to other dictators around the world that they should not be trying to repeat this kind of an exercise. And so on the one hand, I would say, two years ago, would any of us have thought that the US and Europe and others would be doing as much as they’re doing? And I think the answer is “no.” I don’t think any of us could have predicted this. Is it enough for Ukraine to win? Clearly the answer is “no.” So we need to get more long-range missiles like ATACMS to Ukraine so they can go deep into Russian-held territory. We need to get more of the F16s, not just in the training phase, but actually on the ground, in the air in Ukraine, and air defense systems - not only to protect the civilian population of Ukraine, but also to protect the fighters in the field that don’t have enough of that kind of protection. So I’m kind of interested Judy, you know, I’m kind of interested in hearing your views on are we doing enough?
Judy Dempsey
Thanks, Marie, for bringing in the European angle. I’m based in Germany, Berlin, which gives you a very particular perspective because in Brussels we have European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, seriously hands on and very much pushing for a Ukrainian victory. But I don’t think the European support for Ukraine would be where it is today without the big push from the Biden administration. I think this has been very, very important and it really just shows that European security, European defense, the European perspective of this war has only been slowly changing. On the one hand, because of the U.S. administration, but on the other hand, I think finally the view of Russia is changing. I mean, Germany and France hold the key in some ways to the end of this war. And the end of this war is about a Ukrainian victory and a Russian defeat. But somehow there’s an ambiguity still despite this war, the huge loss of life, the whole energy security issues, the whole idea of instability in Europe, it needs a further push that this has to be a victory for Ukraine. And the question is if indeed the major capitals of Europe are ready to understand that Ukrainian victory will mean a defeat for Russia.
Marie Yovanovitch
Well, we agree on that.
Judy Dempsey
But there was a very complicated transition to supporting Ukraine and from breaking the old comfortable dialogue with Russia. And this was a relationship that was built up particularly by Germany and supported by France, built up over the years through energy supplies, through change, through trade and so on. And Germany was very, very slow to actually understand what Russia was doing to the instability of Ukraine, to the instability of Georgia. There was a kind of closing our eyes to when Russia invaded Georgia and we got enough warnings in 2014. But former Chancellor Angela Merkel didn’t push it far enough to put even more pressure on Russia. But above all, to change the German attitude towards Russia. And I go back - and I know I mentioned Germany quite a lot, but this is about Germany, the major economic power in Europe, taking a major security and defense lead to actually prevent further instability and for ending the war in Ukraine. And so that’s how the perspective is seen here in Berlin. And as you know, Washington and Berlin have been in constant, endless dialogue over how to support Ukraine. But it’s getting there in terms of the mental leap that the Germans have had to do.
Marie Yovanovitch
That's so interesting because when I think of it, I think about Nord Stream 2 as kind of almost the symbol of that pull between commerce and relationships, both personal, political, and historical, and then the security aspect and what Russia was doing with its energy in order to undermine political will in Europe.
Judy Dempsey
You’re completely right on the energy security issue, Marie. And there was such a blind spot from the German political class and the elites. Angela Merkel kept calling it a commercial aspect and the former Social Democrat chancellor, Gerhard Schroeder, was so close to Putin. I mean, he engineered this Nord Stream pipeline both 1 and followed by 2. And what it did was it’s actually deeply divided Europe and undermined the kind of energy security that Brussels has been trying to forge. But that aside, North Stream 2 now is drowned, excuse the metaphor, so to speak. So we’re moving on to other things and the big issue, of course, is security. NATO’s role. Where does it go from here? The disappointments for many about the outcome of the Vilnius summit. But above all, and this is about not going back to the old security architecture that Russia needed for it, but about the Europeans and the Americans in a new transatlantic relationship that will establish a modern, new security architecture precisely because of what’s happening in Ukraine. And I think there must be some conversations taking place in Washington over this and, of course, the forthcoming NATO summit in Washington next year.
Marie Yovanovitch
Yeah. So I think you put your finger on it. I think that all of our international institutions, the UN comes to mind, others as well, and certainly NATO, deserve a very hard look, so that these institutions are purpose-built for the challenges of today and tomorrow, rather than for, you know, 1945 to 1958, or whatever it might be. And these institutions built on common values have served us so well over the decades. But we need to modernize them and reform them and figure out what the next steps are. And with regard to NATO specifically, as you point out, the issue of whether or not to invite Ukraine to join is first and foremost on the table. It was at this last NATO summit. It will be again at the summit in July of 2024, which is not only the seventy-fifth anniversary of NATO’s establishment, but it’s also, I think, an historic opportunity for NATO to do the right thing and to invite Ukraine.
I also think the G7 really stepped forward in terms of suggesting or agreeing to provide security commitments to Ukraine on a country basis, and those negotiations are moving forward, certainly with the United States. And what’s interesting - again, you talk about US leadership and in this case, G7 leadership - other countries that are not G7 members have also joined in and said “we too want to strike bilateral agreements with Ukraine to provide Ukraine with the certainty of what they can rely on from our country.”
Judy Dempsey
I’m a little bit skeptical about this happening on a bilateral level, because what happens is… Or on a sort of country to country level. What happens is it cuts out the interoperability. It cuts out, in some ways, common standards, it cuts out common training. And I understand why countries want to do this individually, because they still have Russia in their mind, how Russia will interpret this. But frankly, either we recognize why Ukraine needs security and has to win, or else we close down the shop. I mean, it’s as simple as that. This is about ending the huge instability in Ukraine and the war. And if it’s a half-baked victory, it will embolden Russia even further, and it will increase instability in the rest of Eastern Europe as well. This is why the Ukraine war is not just about Ukraine. It’s about Moldova. It’s about Georgia. It’s about the stability of the Baltic states. It’s about Belarus - Heaven knows what’s going to happen there. But it’s essentially, it's about challenging the status quo of the security arrangements, which what you said were set up by NATO and indeed by the Americans after the Second World War. Now it’s time to move forward.
Marie Yovanovitch
I don’t necessarily disagree with anything that you’ve said, but perhaps my take on it is a little bit more optimistic. I like to think of myself as a realist, and an idealist, but also I’m optimistic. And I do think that countries are committed to helping Ukraine on this bilateral basis. And there are structures, whether it is at NATO, whether it is the CHODs that meet once a month And so it’s not uncommon to have bilateral agreements, but also to coordinate on a multilateral level. I mean it’s complicated stuff, no question about it. But I think it is possible. We have been doing it. I think all of us have been saying, well, why can’t it just all happen quicker? But it has been happening. And I think we need to recognize that. And just keep on pushing for more and more and more, faster, faster, faster.
Judy Dempsey
I’m glad you bring up this optimistic note, because a dose of optimism is really needed, and realistic optimism, which actually brings us into the whole internal situation in Ukraine. Marie, you were based there, hands on you saw all the issues over corruption, the NGOs, the need for transparency, the need for... especially transparency in the presidential administration, the role of the oligarchs. And this is quite amazing, that during a war President Zelensky is actually dealing also with reforms and corruption.
Marie Yovanovitch
Yes. And obviously there has been the all-out war since February of 2022. But I don’t need to remind you or probably any of our listeners that the war started back in 2014. And Ukrainians have been trying to reform their democracy, trying to fight against corruption since the Revolution of Dignity. That’s what that was all about. And then the Russians invaded. And so sometimes the headlines are about the war in Ukraine’s east, the seizure of Crimea, but also about the reform efforts that were going on in Ukraine throughout this period. And so what Zelensky is doing now, obviously complicated by the fact that he has a relatively new government still, right, and complicated by the fact of an all-out war as opposed to what we had seen before, but nevertheless has been making steps forward in the fight against corruption, and most recently firing the recruiters for the Ukrainian military, who were apparently taking bribes and favoring some people over others. And just over the weekend, we got the news, startling I think to many, that Kolomoisky - a Ukrainian oligarch - was arrested for money laundering and fraud.
So we’re seeing some real commitment, I think, to taking steps against corruption. And it needs to continue. If you look at Ukrainian polling, clearly the war is the number one issue in Ukraine, obviously. But the number two issue - at something like 78 percent, I want to say -, is corruption. And so the elites, the government, the economic elites, they need to take this on. Because the Ukrainian people are not fighting this war to bring the oligarchs back again. That’s not what this is about.
Judy Dempsey
Marie, I'm glad you brought in the political east, but especially the oligarchs. But what is extraordinary is the resilience of the civil society and the investigative reporting, because in times of war, there’s a real temptation to censor and to rally around the whole war effort. But maybe Zelensky needs this kind of investigative journalism to push his case even further. To manage the war, on the one hand. And, of course, reassure his European backers and the Americans that he’s doing everything possible to use the funds properly to combat corruption and to not go back to the old corrupt status quo which just hampered Ukraine from the very day of its independence back in the early 1990s.
Marie Yovanovitch
You mentioned civil society, whether it is investigative journalists or people out on the street. We all saw the grandmas in the beginning putting together Molotov cocktails. People are energized, they are committed, they are courageous, they are convinced they are going to win. And because of that, I am convinced that they are going to win. And it’s really inspiring to see what people are doing and how mature civil society in Ukraine is, where people are really taking responsibility on themselves. They aren’t waiting for Zelensky or somebody, you know, the mayor of their small town to tell them what to do. They see a need and they move forward.
Judy Dempsey
Given this huge - still - the substantial, big support for the war, Marie, I wonder about the prospects for peace. Not so much the technical ones, but the psychological, political ones. At what stage will Ukraine say now it’s time to have our security and negotiations? I mean, is there any sense in Ukraine now? We have these various peace plan initiatives by BRICS and then maybe the role of the Turkish president... But you wonder at what level can the Ukrainians maintain this extraordinary support. I mean, the last thing they want are negotiations where they’re going to be stabbed in the back, frankly, after all the deaths, all the casualties, all the effort, all the support for this war, which they want to win. And I’m just wondering: internally at what stage could Zelensky be ready to negotiate and would he have the support?
Marie Yovanovitch
This is an important question and I’m not sure there’s a good answer for it yet. So, I’m not sensing yet that the time for negotiations is here. And, you know, the Bible - not to make this a religious conversation - , but the Bible talks about how there is a time for everything. And I think there’s a time for negotiations, but that time has not come yet for Ukraine, which wants to have more battleground successes. And perhaps, as you’ve already alluded to, I mean, the last couple of days we’ve seen some notable progress, as the White House itself has said, and hopefully that will continue.
We’re getting some positive news and a really interesting interview in The Guardian by one of the Ukrainian generals about how getting through the first line of defenses in Russian fortifications was probably the hardest part. And they are hoping… they still understand it is going to be a long, tough slog but they’re hoping that the next couple of defenses are going to be less so and less well mined, which has been one reason for the slowdown. Overall going back to the peace talks Ukraine wants more victories on the ground. I think Russia wants the same. Russia is not ready for peace. All we’re hearing from Putin is he’s ready for negotiations on his terms, which is he gets to keep everything. I don’t think that’s acceptable to Ukrainians. I don’t think the time for serious actual negotiations is at hand yet.
Judy Dempsey
But I wonder, is time in the hands of Ukrainians, Marie? Because we have presidential elections in the United States next year and there must be a lot of concerns in Kyiv and other parts of Ukraine that if Biden isn’t reelected and if the Republicans win, if Trump wins even ... What would this mean for Ukraine? What would this mean for the Europeans as well? But this could change the trajectory of the war. So my sense here in Berlin is that the Ukrainians must be in a terrible hurry to try to really establish their facts on their ground because this is already September and the US elections are going to get off the ground very soon, the whole campaigning and everything, if it hasn’t started already. So there must be some concern in Kyiv and indeed in Biden’s circles about what will happen over the next ten or twelve months, if not earlier, to Ukraine and to the whole transatlantic relationship based on what’s going to happen in the United States.
Marie Yovanovitch
Yeah, you make a very good point. And so I come back to, I think, where we started, which is that Europe and the United States needs to provide more equipment, more training to Ukraine faster so that Ukraine can win sooner. Because there’s not only the political calendar that’s stretching out in front of us, but there’s also the fact that every day means more Ukrainian and, frankly, Russian deaths. And that is a tragedy.
I would just note that it’s not just the Republican Party. On the left of the Democratic Party, there are also voices that are wondering why we are supporting Ukraine so strongly, so just to note that this is not just a Republican issue. But of course Republicans, because they have already started their campaigning. The first presidential debate has already happened and most of the people on that stage were not in favor of more strongly supporting Ukraine. But just as I put my faith in the Ukrainian people, I put my faith in the American people as well. I mean, much has been made of the fact that support for Ukraine has been dwindling in the American population. But at the end of the day, according to a Gallup poll, which is one of our big pollsters here in the US, in August of last year, 66 percent of Americans favored supporting Ukraine so that Ukraine could regain its territory. In June of this year, it was 62 percent. So it’s a drop, but it’s a drop of 4 percent. It’s not hugely significant, in my view. Now, Republicans are more likely not to agree with that. So 50 percent of Republicans were not in favor of this and wanted peace to come to be at hand as soon as possible. But 47 percent of Republicans, almost half, right, 47 percent of Republicans did want to support Ukraine and its taking back of its own territory.
So I think overall, the American people still really support Ukraine. In the beginning, you know, where was this country and who were these people who were fighting so bravely? We just instinctively identified with Ukrainians and I think that support has continued, as these polls show. And I think politicians, at the end of the day, yes, they are leaders, but in a democracy, they also need to be aware of where the population is.
Judy Dempsey
It’s in some ways a mirror image here in Europe. The support is holding up and it is remarkable. And there are far-right wing parties that complain about it and they say we should negotiate with Russia. But you’re right, Marie, it’s extraordinary how strong the support is and how extraordinary the Poles have taken in how many million Ukrainians. Germany has taken in so many Ukrainians as well. They’re all in schools, they’ve got roofs over their heads, they’ve got decent social welfare systems. It’s a staggering development, especially for Germany, because they already took in a million Syrians fleeing the terrible civil war in Syria.
So, Europe is together on this, which brings us, I suppose, to the point, as we draw closer to the end of this podcast, is Europe’s responsibility. And you’ve got to hand it, I suppose, to Brussels, they seem, despite some divisions among the member states, that enlargement is on the cards for Ukraine. And I’m wondering, is this a view seen by the United States as well, this huge importance of enlargement?
Marie Yovanovitch
Yeah, completely agree with everything you said, Judy. Completely agree. The US supports enlargement, and particularly right now, obviously for Ukraine, and because the EU has been - like NATO - has been one of the stabilizing factors in Europe’s security and world security, but it has also engendered prosperity. And part of the reason for that is that these are not ad-hoc, fly-by-the-night organizations that come together for tactical purposes today. These are institutions and organizations that are built on common values. And so that is why NATO, for example, is the most successful defense pact in the history of the world. I mean, it’s incredible when you think about it. And both organizations are about those common values, about democracy, rule of law, rights of individuals. In fact, those three phrases are in the first paragraph of the Washington Treaty, which established NATO. I mean, people think of NATO as just being a security organization, it’s just defense, arms, that sort of thing. It’s about much more, it’s about those common values. And with Europe taking the steps to bring in Ukraine as a member, and hopefully NATO doing the same relatively soon, I think that that will be a spur to Ukraine to move forward on some of the issues we were talking about earlier: rule of law, fighting corruption, strengthening the judiciary, media freedoms, reversing the centralization that has taken place under martial law, all of these really important factors that make up a democracy. And I think that is one of the things that we want to see for Ukraine.
Judy Dempsey
The EU is such an attraction to non-EU countries, whether it’s Ukraine, even Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia. But the EU must never lose sight of making sure its own house upholds the very values and democratic principles that it tries to extend to the rest of the eastern region. And indeed, many countries, especially Moldova and Ukraine, do look to the EU as a kind of - How would I describe it? - as a kind of support for the reformers to encourage them to keep going with the reforms. And this is where the leadership of the EU is so important, and indeed, as you rightly say, the leadership of NATO. So fingers crossed that the EU will make sure that its own house does uphold those values as much as NATO tries to as well.
Marie Yovanovitch
Completely agree. I’d also just add a point about Ukraine joining Europe - I mean, Ukraine is a part of Europe, but formally through its institutions, the EU and NATO being the premier ones - that also improves our security. Because to have, looking forward into the future, at some point there will be peace, Russia will still be there bordering Ukraine. And to have Ukraine as kind of a free radical wondering whether Russia is going to invade it at any moment and Russia also being on alert, right? That’s, like, a very uncomfortable, I think, future for those two countries first and foremost, but also for Europe. Having Ukraine within the EU and NATO institutions, having to live up to those values, having to be responsible to other countries, I think, not only secures Ukraine and gives it the confidence that it needs to keep on moving forward in a democratic way, but it also ensures Europe’s security and the US’s security by extension.
Judy Dempsey
In some ways, this is about the unfinished business, which is about making Europe whole and free, and strengthening the Euro-Atlantic structures. Europeans must be realizing this more and more with the help of the United States. I’m sure we will return to this topic and I hope in a better military situation or security situation. But there’s no doubt that European stability and security actually depends on Ukraine making this happen.
Judy Dempsey
Marie, it was a pleasure having you on this month’s episode of Europe Inside Out. Thank you very much for making the time.
Marie Yovanovitch
Thank you.
Judy Dempsey
For those who are interested in learning more about Ukraine’s reforms and EU and NATO accession prospects, I encourage you to follow Carnegie Europe’s work. Our X, formerly Twitter, account is @Carnegie_Europe. You can find me at Judy_Dempsey - that is, at J-U-D-Y_D-E-M-P-S-E-Y. I also encourage our listeners to read Marie’s memoir, “Lessons from the Edge.”
Thank you for listening to Europe Inside Out, a podcast by Carnegie Europe. Let us know what you think of the show by reaching out to us on Twitter at @Carnegie_Europe or by email at carnegie.brussels@ceip.org. If you like the show, leave us a rating and subscribe wherever you get your podcast.
This episode of Europe Inside Out was produced with the support from the US mission to the European Union. Our producers are Francesco Siccardi and Indre Krivaite. Sound engineering and original music by Jeremy Bouquet.