Rym Momtaz, Pierre Vimont, and Maha Yahya discuss the recent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas and how to build sustainable peace in the Middle East.
The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas seems to be holding, but much work will need to be done before it can transform into a lasting peace.
Rym Momtaz, Pierre Vimont, and Maha Yahya break down reactions from European and Arab leaders to Trump’s Gaza peace plan and discuss if Europe has a role to play.
Rym Momtaz, October 7, 2025, “The Trump Gaza Peace Plan Needs the EU, Too,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.
Rym Momtaz, June 10, 2025, “Europeans and Arabs Must Take Historic Steps Toward a Palestinian State,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.
Rym Momtaz, May 15, 2025, “Taking the Pulse: Should the EU Suspend its Association Agreement With Israel?,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.
Pierre Vimont, July 22, 2025, “Reinventing European Diplomacy,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.
Pierre Vimont, October 10, 2023, “Europe’s Moment of Powerlessness in the Middle East,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.
Maha Yahya, February 17, 2025, “The Fatal Flaw of the New Middle East,” Foreign Affairs
Rym Momtaz
Hello, and welcome to this episode of Europe Inside Out. I'm your host, Remtaz, editor in chief of Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe's blog where twice a week we publish punchy short analysis on, on all things strategic in Europe. Today we're doing a bit of a different kind of episode. I'm so glad to have Maha Yahya, the director of the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center. Hi, Maha.
Maha Yahya
Hi, Rym . It's good to be with you.
Rym Momtaz
And I'm really delighted that Pierre Vimont, a senior, fellow at Carnegie Europe with a rich diplomatic career dealing with the region, is also here with us. Hi, Pierre.
Pierre Vimont
Hello, Rym. Hello, Maha.
Rym Momtaz
So it's a bit of a different episode because we're commenting in a way on a very much live situation. We're recording on quite a big day of diplomacy. All 20 surviving Israelis still detained by Hamas and other factions in Gaza have been released after 738 days of captivity. Among those 20 Israelis were also three IDF soldiers. And after 738 days of Israel's war on Gaza in response to the October 7 terrorist attacks, the bombing is now, at the very least on pause. There's been a ceasefire that has held for three days. And that's been a great relief for Gazans who have endured starvation, systemic destruction of their homes and repeated forest displacement. One thousand 968 Palestinians detained by Israel were also released today. These include two hundred and fifty who are accused of serious crimes and were sentenced to life in jail. But there's also a very large number held without due process under administrative detention. At the same time, 20 world leaders are meeting in the Egyptian resort city of Sharma Sheikh on the shores of the Red Sea. As we record this, a summit called to work on the next steps. Because as joyful as the quieting of bombs and the return of detainees to their homes is, the hard part is yet to come for this to turn into a real peace. So there's a lot to unpack. Let's dive right in.
Rym Momtaz
Maha, I'm going to start with you. What are the major capitals, the major Arab capitals thinking here? What are they looking forward to what are they perhaps worried about and what do they want to see come out of this first summit today?
Maha Yahya
Hi again, Rym, it's really a delight to be with you and Pierre today. Look, I'm going to begin by quoting Foreign Minister Faisal Bin Farhan, the Saudi Foreign Minister, who described this moment as one of a risk and an opportunity. It's an opportunity to you know, launch a political process in place to, well, first actually to stop the carnage in Gaza and stabilize and launch a political process that technically should end with a two-state solution, particularly after 100, I believe, and 43 countries, within the UN had recognized Palestine as an independent state. So that is the opportunity. The risk is the devil is in the details. What we know so far is that the final version of the ceasefire agreement, this framework, was not what had been agreed to with their Arab interlocutors. and this has been leaked in the press. We've seen different versions. Something that was shared with Arab capitals and what eventually was announced in Washington by President Trump during his press conference with prime, Minister Netanyahu. So that already was a kind of a step back, if you like. There are lots of concerns that while the framework itself had a very strict deadline which has been met today for the release of all the Israeli hostages, frankly people who should never have been taken in the first place and once taken they should have been released ages ago. But no demand on the Israeli side, whether it's for the release of the Palestinians, no guarantees, at least visibly in the agreement, we hear that there are guarantees that have been given to the Palestinians, particularly to Hamas, that the war will not resume. But already we're hearing Prime Minister Netanyahu talking about, all the bodies of the Israelis who've been killed in Gaza must be returned. We're hearing that maybe 8 to 10 of those bodies, the Palestinians don't know where they are. When you look at the level of destruction in Gaza, the horrific level of destruction, we understand there are tens or at least thousands of Palestinians who are buried under the rubble. Then if that becomes a pretext to resume bombing Gaza. The Palestinians may not necessarily know where they are, we don't know.
Rym Momtaz
There were 48 total Israelis still detained by Hamas and the factions in Gaza. The 20 surviving ones have been released. Four bodies are also going to be released today. But that actually leaves 24 bodies that they're basically either trying to locate or perhaps withholding. You never know. But there is of course, a possibility that they can't actually access the bodies because they've had to bury them and then these are actually buried under the rubble, and as you're saying I just wanted to clarify that, Maha, just to let you continue. This could become a pretext for things going wayward already
Maha Yahya
And it's very worrisome. I mean it's horrific. The parents and the families of these individuals, the Israelis who've died in Gaza, have a right to bury their. But then a lot more has to be done to try and locate this. My main concern with this as we move forward is the, you know, we have a ceasefire agreement now, over the past two years we've seen these ceasefire agreements constantly violated, under any kind of pretext. While guarantees have been given that there will not be a resumption of the fighting, we're not sure, we don't know. Lebanon is just one example. It's been more than a year, a year almost now. Well it's exactly almost a year since a ceasefire came into place, and yet Israel has not stopped bombing the country. So it's a cause for concern. The other issue obviously is that it's not clear what the next political steps are. If the ultimate aim is to launch a political process that is to end with a two-state solution at a time when the Knesset, the Israeli Knesset itself has voted against a Palestinian state, when the mood within Israel is somewhere else. And when you hear the triumphalism today in the speeches in the Knesset, you begin to wonder where this will be actually going. Again, there's no time frame, there's no horizon of “okay and within five years this is what we're going to end up with.” All the details in terms of the medium to long term are not there. And that for me is extremely worrisome. In the short term, this talk of about a international stabilization force. We've heard from Arab capitals that they will not put troops on the ground to become policemen for Israel. They are not willing to send anybody there unless there is a clear mandate and preferably a UN Security Council mandate that asks them to basically protect, keep the peace, let's put it this way, but that internal policing would happen by Palestinians themselves. There are other obstacles. But I leave. I'm sure Pierre has a lot to say on that.
Rym Momtaz
And what you're referring to in the Knesset we will touch on in a bit. It is. There were two major speeches today in the Knesset, one by the U.S. President Donald Trump, which is a very unusual thing to happen for an American president to address Knesset and obviously Prime Minister Netanyahu. Pierre, I mean you can hearing and listening to Maha, who has actually been traveling extensively in the Arab world over the past few weeks and has had all these discuss with all of these basically stakeholders. You can see that the mood isn't one of optimism. People are very worried about what might come next. What can the Europeans do in this? Do they have a role? Because clearly the deal that led to the release of the Israelis and the Palestinians and the ceasefire was done by the Americans with Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey in particular. And so the Europeans weren't around that table. But is it fair to say first of all that the Franco-Saudi initiative kind of laid down some of the groundwork for that to happen. And second, you see today in Sharm El Sheikh, all the top leaders from Europe are there, so they went very quickly as soon as those invitations came out. The top leaders from the UK from France, from Germany, from Italy, from Spain, from the Netherlands. What should they be pushing forward today at that meeting?
Pierre Vimont
Very good question, Rym. And thank you for inviting me and it's a pleasure to be here with Maha and to try to, help understanding, what's going on. In order to answer your question, I think there's an interesting feature in this peace plan that needs to be taken into account. As Maha was saying, the two previous ceasefires failed., because if you remember well, there wasn't that kind of peace plan being there. It was always accepted that there should be first the release of the hostages. And at some point then we would start discussing full-fledged ceasefire and the follow up, what we used to call by then the day after. And it never worked on both previous efforts, to bring back the hostages. The whole process broke down without starting to think about the day after. I think honestly that one has to recognize and not being in denial, but recognize that at least this time there is a full-fledged peace plan. But where Maha, and I agree entirely on this, Maha is right, is that the devil is in the details. And much of this second and third stage, I mean by that, the second stage will be the governance of Gaza. And the third stage happily would be self-determination for the Palestinian people and a two-state solution at last. The second and third stages at the moment are just summarily, sketched out without much detail, lack of timeline, lack of understanding who will be in charge. Maha alluded to that and she's absolutely right. Do we need to go back to the UN? The UN has a very poor reputation. But you know, when you want to set up some kind of international force, military force, and this is what this international stabilization force is all about. You need to come out with a clear mandate. You, you need to get the approval of a large part of the international community. And who else than the UN Security Council can do that? And as we all see, there's no mention at all of the UN Security Council in the peace plan. So this is the kind of situation where we are at the moment where if we want to go from stage one, the release of the hostage, the end of the bombing of Gaza, humanitarian assistance being able to access Gaza. All these first steps, short-term urgent matters. Once we are done with this, then the whole next two stages are left there in the open without nobody understanding who will really be in charge. There is this idea of a board of peace, chaired by Donald Trump. But we know that this is going to be difficult. And furthermore, I suspect that for Trump what was important is the quick delivery with the possibility of communication. So it's the release of the hostage and the end of the bombing in Gaza. And for him that means the war is over, as he has said. As we all know, this is only the beginning and there were much more to do. And this is when I come to your question, about the Europeans. Of course in my opinion, the Europeans will have to get involved into this. Not only because I'm European, but I think everybody is going to need to be involved into this. The Arab states, some of the other Muslim states that have taken part also into this whole effort, to bring back the hostages, namely Turkey and Indonesia as well and maybe others. this is going to be a full-fledged international effort in, if we want at last to reach what we have been trying to go for for the last 80 years, which is, two states living side by side in total safety. And we're only at the beginning of this. But where I think there is an interesting point, and you were alluding to that Rym, is that the Europeans and the Arab countries, the countries in the region, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the Emirates and a few others, you could even talk about Oman maybe. they've all have been discussing this together already and I think it's very important for them to stick together and to keep on doing this kind of joint effort, to try to push forward their own vision of what the peace agreement could mean at the end of the day. And this is where I think it will be very important for all of them to keep their attention on what is going to be more and more difficult. Could I just come up with for instance one point that strikes me a lot? If you read this 20-point peace plan. If you look at what is going to be the security situation in Gaza in the next few weeks, you're going to have, if I understand well, 200 U.S. soldiers also sitting around there.
Rym Momtaz
They are expected to be only on the Israeli side.
Pierre Vimont
Exactly. You're going to have some kind of Gaza police that's going to step in, you should have this International Stabilization Force that should step in at some stage, and maybe others will be around also. So how do you organize the mission, the mandates of these different groups. How do you avoid from each of them stepping on the feet of the others? If only this, and this has to happen in the next few weeks, only this, how do you going to deal with that? And then you go, go on with the whole question of, the governance.
Rym Momtaz
Let me just ask you one thing much more concretely because we know what is expected and needed from the Arab and Muslim countries which is to provide A the boots on the ground for the stabilization force, because it's going to manifestly at some point be responsible for disarming Hamas one way or another. You can't imagine Hamas handing over its weapons to, you know, a truly outside force. They're also expected clearly to put up a lot of the reconstruction funds. What do the Europeans concretely bring to the table more than just talking with their counterparts in the Arab world? What tools do they have? Because what you're both saying is that for this to stay on track, there needs to be continued sustained pressure on Israel and on Hamas, otherwise both sides are going to violate this. So what tools of pressure do the Europeans actually have to be players here?
Pierre Vimont
Well, there's one that has been there now for many years, and this is waiting in the dark, which is the EU military mission in Rafah, EUBAM Rafah, that has been there for a long time. When I was working in Brussels, time and again we were thinking about bringing it back. It never happened, because you never end military missions in the EU usually. So it's still there and it could maybe play a useful role. You don't have many people there, but they are advisors, and they could be helpful. But here again, who wants to call them and who should be in charge of calling on them to come in? Ms. Kallas just this morning, mentioned and reminded everyone that we had this military mission there and that they were ready to be helpful if one wanted. But who is going to decide? Maybe this international board that they want to set up, but it's not set up for the time being.
Rym Momtaz
What's interesting about this EU forces that has a very defined mandate. It's a border-assistance mission. So it's supposed to help build capacity on how to police those borders, especially between Gaza and Israel. And I think a lot of people forget about that or aren't even aware of it, but they're still present, and they're present between Gaza and Egypt on the Rafah side.
Maha Yahya
Rym, if I can just add to this one second, beyond the EU military force. One of the questions I've been kind of wondering about is for the past two years, we knew what the consequences, we saw the consequences on Hamas. But until now, and even now moving forward, we don't know what the consequences for Israel would be should it violate the agreement. So, the question to my mind is, what can the EU do? What is it willing to do, what it can do, we have a sense it has a range of tools, either on a bilateral basis or as an EU, to make sure that there are consequences should the agreement be violated under whatever pretext.
Rym Momtaz
Like using perhaps the pressure it can exert on Israel as its biggest commercial trading partner. Through the EU-Israel association agreement. I mean, I think it's going to be interesting to see whether the countries who are willing to have that discussion within the EU are going to manage to put it on the agenda of the European Council summit at the end of October, at the end of this month and see if they can start moving towards some sort of qualified majority in support of that. It was interesting to see, I don't know what you think of this Pierre, but the president of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, put that on the table in her State of the Union speech. Even though, as far as I understand, there's still a lot of reticence, say in Germany, about moving that much forward per German standards, even though we're seeing an interesting changing or softening of the position in Italy, for example.
Pierre Vimont
And the Europeans are supposed to go on discussing this proposition that was put forward by the Commission. But could I give you another illustration, another instance of how the EU could be helpful also on the other side, on the efforts to try to revise reform and strengthen the Palestinian Authority. In the exchange of letters between Mahmūd Abbās and the French President and the Saudi leader, Mahmūd Abbās has committed himself to important changes in the governance of the Palestinian authorities, starting with the promise that they would go for elections soon to be. So this is also a way for the Europeans, you know, they are the main financial provider of the Palestinian Authority. So they can, they can have some leverage there too. And this is the second actor that needs to be brought in at some stage. And that will be a very important actor if we only want this peace plan to go ahead with the support of the Palestinian population. My concern, looking at the way things are going, is to some extent, from the American point of view, you have the impression that they are about to treat Gaza and maybe the West Bank afterwards as another case of “Iraq 2003,” where the Western power comes in and decides for the local population about what is good or bad for them and they just should stay put and silent. And I think that would be disastrous if we went along that line.
Rym Momtaz
So it's interesting when you read the 20-point plan, there's very little agency recognized to the Palestinians as actors of their own destiny. And there's very little recognition or space given to them taking over, governing themselves and building their own capacities and getting support to build their own capacities. And that has been, as far as I understand, a major sticking point between, on the one hand, the U.S./Israeli position and on the other the European and of course Arab position. and so it's going to be interesting to see where all of this ends. Do they manage to have, I mean, there are no Palestinians expected to be part of this Board of Peace, for example. There are no Palestinians who are supposed to be, truly, according to this plan, if it's not amended, governing Gaza directly. There are technocratic Palestinians who are supposed to kind of implement what they're told by others. And that's a very different way of looking at it. It allows me to pivot because we're clearly rejoicing at all of the people who today will sleep better in their own homes because they haven't been home and they've been detained for, you know, 280 days or have been bombed. And that is a great thing and we should all rejoice. But we're also, I think, doing a very big reality check on all of the difficulties lying ahead. And then I listened to Donald Trump and to Netanyahu in the Knesset and let me just read you a few of their quotes. Donald Trump said “Today, the skies are calm, guns are silent, sirens are still, the sun rises on Holy Land that is finally at peace. This is not only the end of war, this is the end of an age of terror and death. And it's basically the beginning of a golden age in the Middle East.”
And Netanyahu says “Abraham's children will work together to build a better future. I extend my hand to all those who seek peace with us. No one wants peace more than the people of Israel.”
Except at the same time, Maha, as you were saying, the Knesset voted to reject the idea of a Palestinian state. So how can there be peace if there's no Palestinian state? As decided by multiple, you know, in international law, by multiple UNGA and UN Security Council resolutions for the past 80 years, basically. When you hear those speeches, what comes through your mind?
Maha Yahya
Cognitive dissonance, honestly. I mean, this sense that, I think the Israeli policy, I mean the tone, the triumphalism of the speeches today for me were just striking, the bubble in which, it's a worldview that's very inward looking, and it is a bubble, that is almost oblivious to the way all of this, I mean, how people have actually lived this conflict over the past two years, both physically in Gaza, but around the world, as we've watched, levels of carnage that are just unbearable in the 21st century, something we never thought we would see again in this way. Even the peace plan itself, as you said, as, as people are overjoyed that the Israelis are back home and Palestinians can at least begin. They, many of them, thousands don't have homes to go back to, but at least they can begin to try and stitch back their shattered lives. It's two different worlds. It's really two different worlds. The push now, as we're seeing it was in the speeches, but also we're getting this vibe, the push for more Abrahamic accords with countries in the region, including Syria, or maybe they're not calling them Abrahamic accords. Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, predominantly. The sense that “okay, we've won, we're moving on now it's time to have peace with everyone” without recognizing that the damage, the distrust, the visceral fear of what has happened to Gaza is going to be implemented elsewhere. the trauma. I mean, there's so many words one can use to describe what has happened over the past year and how people have lived it across the region. Really, there's a cognitive dissonance.
Rym Momtaz
We know that, for example, the Saudi crown prince, when he first emerged and became kind of the leader de facto of his country, he isn't of that generation that is or was too personally invested in the Palestinian cause, as it is known in the Arab world. And so, you know, there's a question to be asked of will he be pragmatic, quote/unquote, at some point and decide that his business interests or his intelligence interests, sort of with the U.S. and as a result with Israel trump, not to use a bad game on words here, but would trump everything you've described in terms of the visceral reactions that his own population has had watching Gaza go through what it has gone through at the hands of the Israeli military since October 2023. Do you think that is actually right now not possible for him, that even for someone like him, he can't just override all of that.
Maha Yahya
At this moment it's impossible, I think. What we've seen actually is Saudi Arabia has shifted its position since two years, and we were talking about an Abraham Accord between Israel and Saudi Arabia on the eve of October 7. Today, Saudi Arabia's official position has been “no normalization without a two-state solution.” The global alliance for a two-state solution was very much about that. And that they have not shifted. Now does that mean as this peace plan, and this is one of the concerns I have because it's not a plan. What we have is a framework. And that framework, we're in phase one, which is just about the release of hostages and stopping the bombing. There's nothing else there at this moment. If, and once the bombs stop, people's attention will shift. My worry is, as we start to move into phase two, we could get to a point where, you know, there's a sense “oh, we've achieved enough, the process is online,” enough milestones would have been crossed without actually reaching some sort of just and sustainable peace agreement. Then yes, we may see a shift in the position.
Rym Momtaz
Pierre, I think this is a good place just to jump in, because Maha said something interesting, which is attention will shift elsewhere. I ask you this. To me, from where I stand, the big differentiator that led us here today, as opposed to a year ago, when almost the same plan was on the table, is that unlike President Biden, President Trump decided to exert pressure on Prime Minister Netanyahu in order to force him to accept the ceasefire and accept the deal as it is. But my question to you is, can we rely on President Trump to keep this kind of attention and pressure in order to ensure that phases two and three are actually implemented?
Pierre Vimont
I'm not entirely sure for the reason I gave earlier because, coming back to exactly what Maha was saying, President Trump seems mostly interested in this first stage more than anything else. And then probably in the reconstruction of Gaza also for obvious reasons of economic and financial investment, I would say. But I think as we move along, we may witness what we saw also with regard to the Ukrainian, crisis, namely the Alaska summit, where Trump had the impression that he got a grasp on the whole issue. And then as he discovered that it was much more difficult, he seemed to start moving away and walking away, from that issue. And there may be a danger of the same thing happening there. But could I add two observations in addition to what Maha was saying that I very much, with which I very much agree. One is don't underestimate also the overall regional situation. Lebanon, Syria, Iran, the elephant in the room. And these factors have to be factored in. These elements need to be factored in at some stage, because there will be interaction. Because at the end of the day, this is not only about future of a Palestinian state, it's about the whole regional security order. And this will reverberate on everything as we move on. And of course, that's my second point. The whole issue there, and this has been looming in the horizon for so many years, is that as long as Israel still perceives itself as a nation outside of the Middle East, in fact, as the sort of, vanguard of the Western world, the bulwark of the Western world and not really a nation inside the region. As long as we have that kind of mindset in Israel, it will remain very difficult, to move ahead with some kind of true peace settlement, sustainable, fair and enduring. I think we have to be aware that there is a need for a mindset change. And we're still very far away from this.
Maha Yahya
Sorry if I can just add one thing about President Trump to his credit, I mean, he was, as Pierre said, he was willing to, you know, put his foot down and say. And I think it's at that point when he realized, especially after the Doha, which we haven't talked about, but after the bombing of Doha, the Israeli attack on Qatar that he was at a point when Israel's behavior, the behavior of Benjamin Netanyahu was beginning to threaten not only the U.S.'s credibility, but also regional and business interests. Of course, the wanting to win a Nobel Prize that, you know, we heard a lot about today in the can asset. So that may, that carrot, if you like, or that particular angle may incite, basically incentivize him to maintain a certain amount of pressure on Israel in the short term. The problem is, I mean, he's heading this peace board, I mean, he doesn't have experience in these kinds of negotiations. So the kind of intricate, nitty gritty, Pierre would know this as well, that is required to get to a point of, especially if something so intractable. We're very far from that and I don't see the pieces in place, unfortunately, to get us there at this point.
Rym Momtaz
Yeah, I'm sorry to say I share both of your, caution, and concern. We can only hope that things that we will be proven wrong. Ah, I think that's, you know, what everyone hopes for. But it's true that sort of precedent doesn't point in that direction, and, you know, we've run out of time. But just to wrap up one, there's a massive humanitarian, crisis in Gaza that will take a very long time to handle. Even if the ceasefire does hold. You know, there are needs to clear rubble that will take years, according to Trump's own special envoy, Steve Witkoff, in addition to the medical, and obviously food needs that are very immediate. There's the issue that Pierre, really, I think it deserves a whole episode on itself, which is the mindsets. And the mindsets on both sides. There's been a radicalization of both societies. And how do we come back from that? And as you were saying, there are spoilers on both sides. There are extremists and fundamentalists on both sides who don't want to see this peace take hold because they have messianic ideas about what this land should be used for. And so, we keep all of that in mind, and we obviously hope that none of this will come into play and that things will stay on the rails. And this is where, in a way, the Europeans could help and the Arabs, of course, build that plan into the framework, as Maha was saying. Because right now it doesn't seem likely that it will come from the U.S. administration that attention to the detail that is needed. Even though one has to recognize that without President Trump and without the U.S. and its massive power and leverage over all sides, this wouldn't have happened. And we're already in a better place than we were a week ago, six months ago, and obviously a year ago.
So with that, I want to really thank both of you for taking the time to share all of your insights., and I have a feeling we're going to be doing another episode on this issue soon, perhaps.
Maha Yahya
Hopefully it will be a more, uplifting episode about the successes and not the fact that this has indeed become. A red herring
Rym Momtaz
And how we've been proven wrong. Hopefully.
Maha Yahya
I think the three of us would be extremely happy to be proven wrong on this one.
Rym Momtaz
Thank you both.
Thank you for joining this month's episode of Europe Inside Out. A small programming note: I will be absent for next couple of episodes, but I leave you in the wonderful hands of my colleagues and they have great episodes lined up, so please tune in.
For those who are interested in learning more about the peace process in the Middle East and what Europe can do, I encourage you to follow the work of Carnegie Europe on X and LinkedIn.
Our producer is Mattia Bagherini.